Trump’s tactics in Iran and the longest intentional internet blackout ever – NPR

The Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran dramatically escalated geopolitical tensions and severely impacted the Iranian economy. This policy converged with internal Iranian dissent, culminating in widespread protests in November 2019 and an unprecedented, near-total national internet blackout, the longest of its kind in Iran's history. This article examines the intricate relationship between US foreign policy and Iran’s domestic stability, focusing on the tactical approaches and their profound consequences.

Background: A History of Tensions and the Nuclear Deal

Decades of strained relations between the United States and Iran have been punctuated by periods of intense diplomatic engagement and severe confrontation. The backdrop for the Trump administration's approach was firmly rooted in the aftermath of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Pre-Trump Era: The JCPOA’s Genesis

Iran's nuclear program became a significant international concern in the early 2000s, with fears that Tehran was pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities under the guise of civilian energy production. This led to a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions, alongside unilateral sanctions from the United States and the European Union. These measures aimed to compel Iran to halt its uranium enrichment activities and cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

After years of negotiations, often involving the P5+1 group (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the JCPOA was signed in Vienna on July 14, 2015. Under the agreement, Iran committed to significantly curtailing its nuclear program, including reducing its centrifuge count, limiting uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles, and redesigning its Arak heavy water reactor. In return, the international community agreed to lift a wide array of nuclear-related economic sanctions. The deal was seen by the Obama administration and its international partners as a critical step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, subject to robust verification by the IAEA. For a few years, the IAEA consistently reported Iran's compliance with the agreement's terms.

Trump’s Campaign Promises and Early Rhetoric

Even before taking office, Donald Trump was a vocal critic of the JCPOA. During his 2016 presidential campaign, he repeatedly denounced the agreement as "the worst deal ever," arguing that it did not adequately address Iran's ballistic missile program, its support for regional proxy groups, or its human rights record. He also criticized the deal's "sunset clauses," which would gradually lift some restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities after a specified period.

Upon assuming the presidency in January 2017, Trump's administration signaled a clear intention to reconsider US participation in the JCPOA. Despite certifications from the State Department that Iran was technically complying with the deal's terms, President Trump consistently expressed his dissatisfaction. He argued that the deal was fundamentally flawed and did not serve American interests, setting the stage for a dramatic shift in US policy towards Tehran.

The “Maximum Pressure” Campaign Unfolds

The Trump administration's strategy towards Iran, dubbed "maximum pressure," was a multifaceted approach designed to isolate Iran economically and politically, compel it to negotiate a new, more comprehensive agreement, and alter its regional behavior. This strategy marked a significant departure from the previous administration's diplomatic engagement.

Withdrawal from the JCPOA (May 2018)

On May 8, 2018, President Trump announced the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In a televised address from the White House, he stated that the deal was "defective at its core" and that the US would reimpose all sanctions that had been waived under the agreement. He argued that the JCPOA failed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, did not address its ballistic missile program, or its "malign" regional activities.

The decision was met with strong reactions globally. European allies—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—expressed deep regret and vowed to uphold the deal, attempting to create mechanisms to circumvent renewed US sanctions and preserve the economic benefits for Iran. Russia and China also condemned the withdrawal, emphasizing the importance of international agreements. Conversely, Israel and Saudi Arabia, long-standing critics of the JCPOA and adversaries of Iran, publicly supported the US decision, viewing it as a necessary step to counter Iranian influence. For Iran, the withdrawal was a significant blow, undermining the moderate faction within its leadership that had championed the deal and strengthening hardliners who had always distrusted the West.

Escalation of Sanctions

Following the JCPOA withdrawal, the Trump administration systematically reimposed and expanded sanctions on Iran. This began with a phased reintroduction of sanctions that had been lifted in 2016, targeting Iran's automotive sector, gold trade, and various financial transactions by August 2018. The most impactful measures came in November 2018, when sanctions on Iran's energy, shipping, and financial sectors were fully reinstated. These sanctions aimed to cripple Iran's ability to export oil, its primary source of revenue.

Initially, the US granted waivers to eight major importers of Iranian oil, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey, allowing them to continue purchases for a limited period. However, these waivers were allowed to expire in May 2019, with the stated goal of driving Iran's oil exports to zero. The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also imposed numerous new sanctions, targeting Iranian banks, the national shipping company, industrial metals (steel, aluminum, copper), and various individuals and entities associated with Iran's nuclear, missile, and conventional military programs. Secondary sanctions were a critical component, threatening to penalize any foreign entity that engaged in significant transactions with sanctioned Iranian entities, effectively isolating Iran from the global financial system. This comprehensive economic blockade led to a severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, soaring inflation, and a significant contraction of Iran's economy.

Military Posturing and Regional Tensions

The "maximum pressure" campaign was not confined to economic measures; it also involved a significant increase in military posturing and rhetoric, particularly in the Persian Gulf region. The US deployed additional military assets, including an aircraft carrier strike group, B-52 bombers, and Patriot missile defense systems, citing unspecified threats from Iran. This military buildup was accompanied by stern warnings from US officials, including then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, signaling a readiness to respond forcefully to any Iranian aggression.

The region experienced a series of destabilizing incidents in mid-2019. In May and June, several commercial oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, with the US blaming Iran, an accusation Tehran denied. Tensions escalated further in June 2019 when Iran shot down a US RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it had violated Iranian airspace. President Trump initially authorized retaliatory strikes but called them off at the last minute, citing potential casualties. In September 2019, major drone and missile attacks struck Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, temporarily halving the kingdom's oil production. The US, Saudi Arabia, and European allies attributed these attacks to Iran, though Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, claimed responsibility.

Further intensifying the pressure, in April 2019, the Trump administration designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), marking the first time the US had labeled a part of another nation's government as a terrorist entity. This move aimed to increase economic and political isolation of the IRGC, which holds significant economic power and influence within Iran. Regional allies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel actively supported and, at times, encouraged the US's hardline stance, viewing Iran as a primary threat to regional stability.

Diplomatic Stalemate

Despite the aggressive rhetoric and actions, President Trump occasionally expressed openness to direct negotiations with Iran, often without preconditions. However, these offers were consistently met with skepticism and rejection by Iranian leaders, who demanded that the US first lift sanctions as a prerequisite for any talks. Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stated that engaging in talks under duress would be a sign of weakness and would legitimize the US's coercive policies.

European powers, particularly French President Emmanuel Macron, made concerted efforts to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Macron proposed initiatives such as a credit line for Iran to sell oil, aiming to provide economic relief in exchange for Iran returning to full compliance with the JCPOA and engaging in broader negotiations. However, these efforts ultimately failed to bridge the fundamental gap between the US demand for a new, more comprehensive deal and Iran's insistence on sanctions relief as a precondition for any dialogue. The "maximum pressure" campaign thus led to a prolonged diplomatic stalemate, characterized by escalating tensions and a lack of direct communication channels.

The November 2019 Protests and Internet Blackout

The cumulative impact of international sanctions and domestic economic mismanagement created a volatile environment in Iran. This volatility erupted into widespread protests in November 2019, which were met with a severe government crackdown, including an unprecedented national internet shutdown.

Fuel Price Hikes and Public Outcry

On November 15, 2019, the Iranian government announced a sudden and significant increase in fuel prices, raising the price of gasoline by 50% for the first 60 liters and by 300% for any additional fuel. The government justified the move by citing the need to reduce fuel subsidies, combat smuggling, and generate revenue for social welfare programs aimed at low-income families. President Hassan Rouhani's administration argued that the measure was necessary to address the country's severe budget deficit, exacerbated by the crippling US sanctions that had drastically cut oil export revenues.

The announcement immediately triggered widespread public outrage. Within hours, protests erupted in dozens of cities across the country, starting in Mashhad and quickly spreading to Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and many other urban centers. Initially, the demonstrations focused on the fuel price hikes, with protestors blocking roads, setting fire to petrol stations, and clashing with security forces. However, the protests quickly evolved beyond economic grievances, morphing into broader anti-government demonstrations. Chants against the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials became common, reflecting deep-seated frustration over corruption, political repression, and the overall economic hardship faced by ordinary Iranians. The speed and scale of the protests indicated the profound level of public discontent simmering beneath the surface.

The Unprecedented Internet Shutdown

As the protests intensified and spread, the Iranian government implemented a drastic measure to control the narrative, suppress dissent, and prevent the organization of further demonstrations: a near-total national internet shutdown. Starting on November 16, 2019, and becoming almost complete by November 17, Iranian authorities ordered internet service providers (ISPs) to cut off access to the global internet. This effectively severed nearly all international internet traffic, plunging the vast majority of the country into digital darkness.

The shutdown was meticulously executed. Data from internet monitoring organizations like NetBlocks confirmed a dramatic drop in connectivity, falling to as low as 4% of ordinary levels. While access to the global internet was largely blocked, some domestic intranet services and government-approved websites remained accessible to a limited degree, creating an information vacuum for the general populace. The government justified the blackout as a necessary security measure to prevent "foreign-instigated" unrest, thwart "riots," and maintain public order. They accused external enemies and counter-revolutionary elements of exploiting the protests to destabilize the country.

This November 2019 blackout was unprecedented in its scale and duration for Iran. While Iran had a history of internet censorship, throttling, and localized shutdowns, a complete national disconnection from the global internet for an extended period had never occurred before. The blackout lasted for approximately a week for most of the country, with some areas experiencing restrictions for even longer. This deliberate, state-mandated digital isolation prevented protestors from communicating with each other, organizing, or sharing information and videos with the outside world. It also severely hampered independent reporting on the ground, allowing the government to control the flow of information about the scale of the protests and the severity of its crackdown.

Government Crackdown

The internet blackout provided cover for a swift and brutal government crackdown on the protests. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij paramilitary forces, and police, were deployed extensively to suppress the demonstrations. Eyewitness accounts and reports that eventually emerged described security forces using live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannons against protestors. Videos, smuggled out before or after the internet shutdown, depicted scenes of violence and indiscriminate firing into crowds.

Mass arrests were conducted across the country, with human rights organizations estimating thousands of individuals detained. Many of those arrested reportedly faced torture and ill-treatment. The exact number of casualties remains contested, but international human rights groups, such as Amnesty International, reported that hundreds of protestors were killed, with some estimates placing the death toll significantly higher. The government acknowledged some fatalities but provided much lower figures, blaming "rioters" and "foreign agents" for the violence. The lack of internet access made it nearly impossible for families to locate missing relatives or for human rights organizations to gather real-time, verified information, highlighting the blackout's role as a tool of repression and information control.

Impact of the Dual Pressures

The combined effects of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign and the Iranian government's internal crackdown, particularly the internet blackout, had profound and far-reaching consequences across Iran's economy, civil liberties, and geopolitical standing.

Economic Devastation in Iran

The reimposition and escalation of US sanctions inflicted severe damage on Iran's economy. The country's oil exports, once a major revenue source, plummeted from over 2.5 million barrels per day before the US withdrawal from the JCPOA to less than 300,000 barrels per day by late 2019. This drastic reduction in oil revenue, coupled with restrictions on international banking and trade, led to a significant contraction of Iran's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a sharp decline in Iran's GDP, with double-digit contractions in 2019.

Inflation soared, reaching over 40% in 2019, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The Iranian rial experienced a dramatic depreciation against major currencies, making imported goods more expensive and fueling public discontent. Unemployment rates, particularly among youth, remained stubbornly high. Iranian businesses, especially those reliant on international trade or access to global financial markets, struggled to survive. The sanctions also created significant challenges for importing essential goods, including medicines and medical equipment, despite humanitarian exemptions, due to banks' reluctance to process transactions involving Iran. This directly impacted the health and well-being of the Iranian populace, adding to the economic hardship.

Erosion of Civil Liberties and Human Rights

The November 2019 internet blackout and the subsequent crackdown represented a severe assault on civil liberties and human rights in Iran. The right to freedom of expression, assembly, and access to information were fundamentally undermined. The internet shutdown effectively silenced dissent, prevented protestors from organizing, and isolated the population from the outside world. This digital isolation also severely hampered the ability of journalists, human rights monitors, and international observers to document abuses and report on events unfolding inside the country.

The government's use of lethal force against protestors, mass arrests, and reports of torture and ill-treatment of detainees drew widespread condemnation from international human rights organizations and several governments. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and other groups documented extensive human rights violations, calling for independent investigations into the killings and arbitrary detentions. The Iranian government's response demonstrated an increasing willingness to resort to extreme measures to maintain control, further eroding the space for peaceful protest and dissent within the country.

Geopolitical Ramifications

The "maximum pressure" campaign and Iran's internal responses profoundly impacted regional and international geopolitics. The withdrawal from the JCPOA and the escalation of sanctions led Iran to gradually reduce its commitments under the nuclear deal, citing the inability of European partners to deliver on economic benefits. This included exceeding uranium enrichment limits, increasing its stockpile, and activating advanced centrifuges, raising renewed concerns about its nuclear program.

Regionally, tensions soared. Iran continued to support proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, viewing these as essential to its security doctrine in the face of US and Saudi pressure. Incidents like the drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities further destabilized the Persian Gulf, increasing the risk of direct conflict. The US's unilateral approach also strained its relations with European allies, who disagreed with the JCPOA withdrawal and struggled to maintain their own diplomatic and economic ties with Iran. This divergence weakened a united front against Iran and complicated efforts to de-escalate tensions. Iran, facing isolation from the West, strengthened its strategic partnerships with non-Western powers like China and Russia, exploring avenues for trade and security cooperation outside the reach of US sanctions.

The Digital Divide and Economic Cost of Blackout

The intentional internet blackout in November 2019 had immediate and severe economic consequences. NetBlocks, a watchdog organization, estimated that the shutdown cost Iran hundreds of millions of dollars in economic output daily. Businesses, particularly those reliant on e-commerce, international transactions, or digital communication, faced immediate disruption and significant losses. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which often lack the infrastructure to operate offline, were particularly hard hit.

Beyond the direct economic cost, the blackout exacerbated the digital divide within Iran. While some government and essential services maintained limited access to a domestic intranet, the vast majority of citizens were cut off from global information, communication, and economic opportunities. This isolation had a profound psychological impact, fostering fear, uncertainty, and a sense of being cut off from the rest of the world. Students, researchers, healthcare providers, and individuals relying on online services for education, remote work, or medical information were severely disadvantaged. The incident underscored the Iranian government's capacity and willingness to weaponize internet control as a tool of state power, with significant implications for the country's digital future and the freedom of its citizens.

What Next: Unresolved Tensions and Future Paths

The legacy of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign and Iran's subsequent internal responses continue to shape the trajectory of the region. The deep-seated issues remain unresolved, pointing to complex challenges for any future engagement.

The Legacy of Maximum Pressure

The "maximum pressure" campaign aimed to force Iran to negotiate a new, more comprehensive nuclear deal and fundamentally alter its regional behavior. However, its effectiveness in achieving these stated goals is subject to mixed interpretations. While the sanctions undeniably crippled Iran's economy, they did not lead to a new deal or a significant change in Tehran's strategic calculus regarding its regional influence or ballistic missile program. Instead, Iran responded by progressively reducing its commitments under the JCPOA, accelerating its nuclear program in several areas, and entrenching hardline factions within its political system who view engagement with the West with deep suspicion.

The campaign also arguably fueled greater instability in the Persian Gulf, leading to a series of confrontations that brought the US and Iran to the brink of military conflict. Furthermore, it pushed Iran closer to strategic rivals of the US, such as China and Russia, strengthening their economic and military ties. The policy's critics argue that it made Iran more defiant, less transparent, and more regionally assertive, rather than more compliant or amenable to negotiation.

Future US Policy Options

Looking ahead, US policy towards Iran faces a critical juncture. One potential path involves a return to diplomacy, possibly under a new administration, with an emphasis on re-engagement with the JCPOA or negotiating a modified agreement. This would likely entail the US offering some form of sanctions relief in exchange for Iran returning to full compliance with nuclear restrictions and potentially addressing other concerns. However, the political will for such a move, both in Washington and Tehran, remains uncertain, particularly given the increased nuclear advancements Iran has made since the US withdrawal.

Another option involves continued sanctions pressure, perhaps refined to target specific entities or activities, aiming to maintain economic leverage. This approach risks further escalating tensions and could be perceived by Iran as a continuation of hostile policies, hindering any prospects for dialogue. Military escalation remains a perennial risk, especially if regional incidents continue or Iran's nuclear program progresses beyond a point deemed acceptable by the US and its allies. The role of international cooperation will be crucial, as a unified approach from global powers could offer a more effective pathway to managing the Iranian nuclear file and regional stability than unilateral action.

Iran’s Internal Dynamics

Internally, Iran continues to grapple with deep public discontent fueled by economic hardship, political repression, and a lack of opportunities. The November 2019 protests, and subsequent smaller demonstrations, underscore the fragility of the government's legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens. The government's response to dissent, characterized by force and information control, indicates a continued reliance on authoritarian tactics to maintain stability.

Economically, Iran faces immense challenges in recovering from the prolonged sanctions regime and internal mismanagement. The "resistance economy" promoted by Supreme Leader Khamenei, focused on self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on oil exports, has yielded mixed results and has not alleviated the suffering of ordinary Iranians. The country also faces significant political succession questions, particularly regarding the aging Supreme Leader, which could trigger further internal power struggles and potentially influence future foreign policy directions.

The Future of Internet Freedom in Iran

The November 2019 internet blackout served as a stark demonstration of the Iranian government's capacity and willingness to control information flow and suppress dissent through digital means. In its aftermath, the government has continued to invest in and promote its national intranet, often referred to as the "National Information Network" or "Halal Internet." This initiative aims to create a domestically controlled internet infrastructure that can operate independently of the global internet, theoretically allowing the government to maintain essential services while cutting off external access during times of crisis.

Despite these efforts, Iranian citizens have consistently sought ways to circumvent censorship and access the global internet through virtual private networks (VPNs) and other circumvention tools. The ongoing struggle between state control and citizen access highlights the broader battle for internet freedom in the country. International advocacy groups continue to monitor the situation and call for unrestricted internet access in Iran, recognizing it as a fundamental human right. The future of internet freedom in Iran will likely remain a contested space, with the government balancing its desire for control against the societal and economic pressures for greater connectivity.